Under the FAO projection, the rate of average annual cereal yield growth could fall gradually over the next 35 years and still meet demand using only existing cropland. Although even a 25%–70% increase will be challenging, global agricultural output is at least on the right trajectory. Global agriculture towards 2050 population growth Source: UN Population Division, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. Many authors call for production increases of 60%–100% by 2050, based on two recent food-demand projections (Tilman et al. To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, Foley and colleagues (2011) called for an 80% reduction in agricultural GHG emissions. The FAO (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012) assumed a lower rate of annual GDP growth than Tilman and colleagues (2011): 2.1% as compared with 2.5%. These two examples show that agriculture still faces large environmental challenges, but they are not meant to imply that the sector has not made any progress. Authorised by the Chief Communications Officer, UNSW Division of External EngagementProvider Code: 00098G ABN: 57 195 873 179, It's not too late: 5 ways to improve the government's plan for threatened wildlife, New eco-friendly way to make ammonia could be boon for agriculture, hydrogen economy, UNSW academics rank among the most influential globally, New defect rectification guide helps apartment owners navigate building faults. In 2001, an intergovernmental task force set a goal to reduce the average size of the dead zone to 5000 km2 by 2015, which would require reducing annual N and P loading to a level 45% below the 1980–1996 average (MRGMWNTF 2001, 2008). To illustrate the true scope of agriculture's environmental challenges, we analyze the sector's performance against quantitative targets that have been proposed to achieve specific environmental outcomes: mitigating climate change and limiting eutrophication in the Gulf of Mexico. A 593 million-hectare land gap (an area nearly twice the size of India) between global agricultural land area in 2010 and expected agricultural expansion by 2050; and An 11-gigaton GHG mitigation gap between expected agricultural emissions in 2050 and the target level needed to hold global warming below 2 o C (3.6°F), the level necessary for preventing the worst climate impacts. The goals of sustainable intensification extend beyond aggregate production and environmental performance. 2013, Davis et al. We illustrate this goal using P data because the trends for total N and reactive N are diverging and the Gulf Hypoxia Task Force goal applies only to total N. Because total N has been declining more rapidly than reactive N, using total N would indicate greater progress toward the goal than has actually been made. Mueller ND, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Foley JA. 2014) and shifting diets (Davis et al. Farming in the year 2050 [1] ... Cheap fossil energy is but a distant memory and anything that depends on it – including industrial agriculture – is functionally obsolete. Mitchell C. Hunter, Richard G. Smith, Meagan E. Schipanski, Lesley W. Atwood, David A. Mortensen, Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification, BioScience, Volume 67, Issue 4, April 2017, Pages 386–391, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix010. Dr Joshua Zeunert’s new project will forecast potential scenarios to inform decision-makers and help ensure our food supply security. We propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals. Calls to double crop production from a recent baseline imply growth rates outside of the range of empirical projections. 2009 Developed other Developing Least Developed World 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Billion High Level Expert Forum - How to Feed the World in 2050 Office of the Director, Agricultural … © The Author(s) 2017. 2016), and (b) SI environmental goals should aim to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning in both managed and natural systems (Neufeldt et al. 2013, Ray et al. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. 2011-67003-30343 and USDA Organic Research and Extension Initiative grant no. 2013, Long et al. Dr Joshua Zeunert from UNSW Built Environment. Cereal production increased 24% from 2005 to 2014 because of both yield improvements and the expansion of cropped area (supplemental tables S1 and S5; FAO 2016). Indeed, US agriculture has improved in important areas, including by cutting sheet, rill, and wind erosion by 43% between 1982 and 2007 (USDA 2011) and by beginning to reduce N losses in the Midwest (McIsaac et al. 2017). Van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Grassini P, Wolf J, Tittonell P, Hochman Z, Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. Additional policy efforts are needed to manage food demand by reducing food waste (West et al. (c) Historical total phosphorus loading in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin and 2035 goal (in gigagrams). For both of these projections, the base year is now a decade past, and production has increased substantially in this time (table S1). These goals appear clear and compelling, but they exaggerate the scale of the production increase needed by 2050 because they misinterpret the underlying projections and ignore recent production gains. The hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico is fed by the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin system in the central United States, where riverine nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are primarily from agricultural sources. My goal is to understand these narratives and to forecast, test and illustrate them as potential scenarios to help inform stakeholders, politicians and decision-makers. This database contains projections used for the preparation of the report "The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050". First, research is needed to specify targets in both categories. The experts will include federal and state government ministers, key government decision-makers, heads of relevant departments like agriculture and primary industries; university-based, CSIRO and independent researchers; national and state leaders of key representational bodies such as the National Farmers’ Federation; NGO, volunteer, advocacy and not-for-profit organisations like Landcare and the Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance; and key figures in agriculture and the media. 2013, Pretty and Bharucha 2014). [MRGMWNTF] Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force. Second, the price-weighted basis of the FAO figures implies a larger increase in crop demand than is actually projected on a mass basis: For example, FAO projects only a 46% increase in cereals demand (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Here, we focus on the US context. 2013, Rockström et al. Competitiveness of Tasmanian Agriculture for 2050 Discussion Paper January 2020 7 Competitiveness in Agriculture According to the Productivity Commissionii, agricultural competitiveness is about advantage in markets . DGE1255832. First, the FAO projection of a 60% increase is frequently misquoted as a 70% increase when authors cite an earlier FAO report (Alexandratos 2006). To project the broad changes in the global farm and food system over the period 2006 to 2050, we utilize the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) (Baldos and Hertel 2013). Agriculture will face many challenges in the future and the growing population will require a drastic increase in food supply. In contrast, agriculture's environmental performance is going in the wrong direction: Aggregate impacts are increasing and must drop sharply over the coming decades (figure 1b–c, supplemental table S3). 2011, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Beyond this, however, stated goals diverge. As figure 1c shows, P loading has been increasing, and meeting the 45% reduction goal would require a significant shift in trajectory (see also table S3). The aim of his project is to forecast scenarios of what Australian agriculture might look like and entail in 2050, and to ensure Australia's food supply landscapes and systems remain sustainable. Opposition Leader, Anthony Albanese put the spotlight on farming when he told the ABC’s Insiders program last Sunday that under a Labor Government, agriculture would be included in an economy-wide carbon neutral by 2050 target. More than $3 billion a year is invested through Australia’s rural research and development sector, driving long-term growth of our production industries . 2016). The Competitiveness of Tasmanian Agriculture for 2050 White Paper sets out the Tasmanian Government’s framework for continuing to foster a competitive agricultural sector … He completed his PhD by publication in 2018 which, he says, gave him a “track record” for his first DECRA application just a year later. Media Office, UNSW Sydney NSW 2052 Australia 2011, West et al. [IPES-Food] International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems. We use global demand for cereals as a proxy for total crop demand to illustrate the production increase needed by 2050. The two projections have drastically different implications for the future of crop production. Dr Joshua Zeunert from UNSW Built Environment. This error is particularly misleading when authors explicitly graph 2050 demand as a doubling from current levels (e.g., Long et al. “The government’s existing narrative is that Australia feeds 60 million people and thus, because we produce a lot more food than we need ourselves, our food security isn’t seen as a concern. Our focus on aggregate global cereal demand does not imply that meeting this demand would ensure global food security. The second largest in the world, this dead zone reached 22,000 square kilometers (km2) in 2002 and averages 13,650 km2 per year (EPA 2016). First, Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012) of the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projected a 60% increase in demand from a 2005/2007 baseline using a price-weighted index of food commodities. The rationale for the VRC factors is based on the ‘virtual water content’ concept developed by Hoekstra and Chapagain (2008) , which refers to the volume of freshwater needed to produce a product. Global agriculture towards 2050: High-level Expert Forum on how to feed the world in 2050, 12-13 Oct 2009 Format Analysis Source. “By 2050 effective regulations may minimize the loss of agricultural productivity and lead to a more economically sustainable water system with moderate investment in infrastructure to store and move water. Meanwhile, agriculture's environmental impacts need to fall rapidly to protect critical ecosystem functions. Tilman D, Blazer C, Hill J, Befort BL. Goals should reflect the updated projection that production must increase approximately 25%–70% from recent levels to meet demand in 2050. Food demand in 2050 is projected to rise as the global population crests 9.7 billion people (UN 2015) and greater wealth drives up per-capita consumption, especially of resource-intensive animal products (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). 2014). Supplementary data are available at BIOSCI online. Obregon, Mexico 25-28 March 2014 Water for Agriculture in 2050: Are We Ready? Food demand is projected to climb, while environmental impacts must plummet. The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is rife with the assertion that food production must increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—to meet surging demand. “And the tragic recent [bushfire] events, which perhaps demonstrate how widespread change can quickly occur, will also make us want to look at that claim a little more closely.”. California Agriculture in 2050: Still Feeding People, Maybe Fewer Acres and Cows Lori Pottinger February 18, 2020 Water supply concerns, regulations, labor issues, tariffs, climate change, and other challenges have prompted some rather dire predictions about the future of California agriculture. 2017). 2011, Tilman et al. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. Based on the information Dr Zeunert collates, he will create scenarios and use a technique called ‘scenario testing’ to seek feedback from the experts previously consulted. 2011, Ray et al. We must also halt cropland expansion (Cunningham et al. By the time our generation retires, agriculture's 2050 goals must be met. 2011, West et al. We use the most recent FAOSTAT data (FAO 2016), from 2014, as the baseline for our projections. Australian agriculture in 2050: what will it look like? Our analysis shows that, largely because of recent production gains, an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 demand (figure 1a, supplemental table S1). Since direct agricultural GHG emissions have been steadily climbing, achieving this level of reduction by 2050 would require an abrupt shift in emissions trajectory (figure 1b, table S3). Projected 2050 demand for oilcrops is 46% higher than 2014 production levels based on the FAO projection and 50% higher based on a doubling from 2005 (table S2). Loos J, Abson DJ, Chappell MJ, Hanspach J, Mikulcak F, Tichit M, Fischer J. Mortensen DA, Egan JF, Maxwell BD, Ryan MR, Smith RG. 2015, Daryanto et al. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. The aim of his project is to forecast scenarios of what Australian agriculture might look like and entail in 2050, and to ensure Australia's food supply landscapes and systems remain sustainable. Meeting food demand while maintaining functioning ecosystems will require a recalibrated SI strategy, in which up-to-date production goals are coupled with quantitative environmental targets. The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. Each point represents the compound annual growth rate of global average cereal yields over the 5 previous years (FAO 2016). Views from experts, Sustainable intensification in agricultural systems, Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050, Reconciling agricultural productivity and environmental integrity: A grand challenge for agriculture, Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability, Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health, Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture, Ecological intensification of agriculture: Sustainable by nature, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program: Food Security Program 2015 Request for Applications, USDA National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, [USEPA] US Environmental Protection Agency, Annual Nutrient Flux and Concurrent Streamflow: Updated through Water Year 2015, Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance: A review, Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment, Using pay-for-performance conservation to address the challenges of the next farm bill. The production of oilcrops—which account for most of the remaining calories and protein from human-edible crops—increased even more, by 39% (supplemental tables S2 and S4; FAO 2016). This project was also supported by USDA Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture grant no. To smooth interannual variation, growth rates were calculated using 5-year moving average cereal yields. The research enterprise led by the National Science Foundation and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) should prioritize efforts to identify and meet quantitative production and environmen… For permissions, please e-mail: Mesophication of Oak Landscapes: Evidence, Knowledge Gaps, and Future Research, Growing Threats to the Scientific and Educational Legacies of Research Stations and Field CoursesKelly Swing, Elizabeth Braker, Peggy Fiedler, Ian Billick, Christopher Lorentz, and David Wagner, Great Expectations: Deconstructing the Process Pathways Underlying Beaver-Related Restoration, Robot Ecology: An Inspiration for Future Ecologists, The Invasion Ecology of Sleeper Populations: Prevalence, Persistence, and Abrupt Shifts, http://news.monsanto.com/press-release/monsanto-will-undertake-three-point-commitment-double-yield-three-major-crops-make-mor, http://toxics.usgs.gov/hypoxia/mississippi/flux_ests/delivery/index.html, Receive exclusive offers and updates from Oxford Academic, Copyright © 2021 American Institute of Biological Sciences. The world’s population is expected to reach 9.1 billion people in 2050, up from 7.4 billion in 2016. We also linearly transform both estimates to account for differences between the original projections’ assumed 2050 population and the latest United Nations analysis (UN 2015). 2012), yield plateaus (Grassini et al. 2014, Haacker et al. All rights reserved. Future of agriculture Future of agriculture in 2050 Agriculture will face many challenges in the future and the growing population will require a drastic increase in food supply. [USEPA] US Environmental Protection Agency. 2015). Farmers globally must increase food production 70 percent compared to 2007 levels to meet the needs of the larger population, according to a report from the … Scientists also face a limited number of opportunities to develop and test new production and conservation strategies. Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project global agricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future where aggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around 69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050. Second, Tilman and colleagues (2011) projected that demand for calories and protein from human-edible crops will increase by 100% and 110%, respectively, from a 2005 baseline. Decrease in world cereal yield growth rate over time. To bring US policy in line with future needs, producers who receive subsidies should be required to meet more stringent environmental standards, conservation programs should be reformed to tie payments to quantified outcomes (Winsten and Hunter 2011), and effective regulatory backstops should be instituted to control the most environmentally damaging practices. Our objectives are to clarify the overarching productivity and environmental goals of SI and to recalibrate the narrative on the future of agriculture. 2013). 2013, Long et al. Calls to double food production from today's levels are not supported by existing projections. 2015). Challinor AJ, Watson J, Lobell DB, Howden SM, Smith DR, Chhetri N. [DME] Danish Ministry of the Environment. 2015, Buckley 2016). Rapid production growth in recent years has made substantial progress toward the original projected increases of 46% and 100%. Quantitative targets can help guide these policy efforts and promote effective collaborations among researchers, farmers, government agencies, and civil-society groups. 2014, Pretty and Bharucha 2014, IPES-Food 2016); heterogeneity among regions (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012, Mueller et al. Global climate change is widely accepted as an everyday reality and anything that contributes to it – including industrial agriculture – is both unethical and unlawful. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. With a population projected to reach a staggering 9.8 billion by 2050, farmers will have to produce more food than ever before. and underpinning a huge slice of our economy. 2013); or the merits of different management philosophies (Cassman 1999, IAASTD 2009, Bommarco et al. Instead, the prevailing discourse often focuses on increasing efficiency or improving general “sustainability,” which gives the impression that marginal environmental improvements are sufficient (Petersen and Snapp 2015). They range from the basic—not “increasing agriculture's environmental footprint” (Buckley 2016)—to the more aggressive—“major reductions in environmental impact” (Garnett et al. 2017). UNSW Built Environment senior lecturer Dr Joshua Zeunert has received an Australia Research Council (ARC) Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DECRA) of $417,128. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling SI targets for both production and the environment. Instead, our updated projections are intended to illustrate agriculture's big-picture production challenge. 2011, Ray et al. 2012, Cunningham et al. 2016). [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International Fund for Agricultural Development, World Food Programme. Agriculture in 2050: The Path Forward October 11, 2017 As the third speaker in our series on genetically engineered crops, Mr. Hunter examines how many people we need to feed by 2050 and how this can be done sustainably. Regulatory change must include innovative policy and rules to secure property rights and markets to allow for water transfers and groundwater recharge,” he said. Protofarm 2050 acknowledges that there is no silver bullet with the problem of sustainable farming, and instead focuses on an array of scenarios that could become viable in the future. 2013), and the changing climate (Challinor et al. Agriculture has been front and centre of the national conversation about whether Australia should target net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Doubling yields by 2050 from a recent baseline—the increase implied when authors do not specify the base year for doubling—would require an even higher annual yield growth rate of 1.9% per year. Syngenta Thrive Spring 2017 Growers Power Up With Potent Fungicide The technical challenge of such a fundamental transformation in production systems is daunting, and meeting both sets of goals will require navigating complex trade-offs (Robertson and Swinton 2005, Neufeldt et al. To synthesise the wide array of existing information, Dr Zeunert will use a conceptual framework that draws on established and overlapping processes – sieve mapping, GIS (geographic information systems) and geodesign. 2013) and ensure that the world's poorest people have secure access to nutritious food (FAO et al. “It’s key that these forecasts of future scenarios reach as wide an audience as possible,” he says. “It's quite alarming how different these stories are – and it's not very common within areas of study for there to be such polarised views on what the future might entail. Telephone. Agricultural production activities directly contribute 11%–13% of the world's total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IPCC 2014). The Danish government's pesticide strategy, which aims to reduce pesticide loads by 40%, is one promising example of using quantitative targets to collaboratively set agroenvironmental policy (DME 2013). This imbalance persists despite calls in the growing sustainable intensification (SI) literature to treat food production and environmental protection as equal parts of agriculture's grand challenge (Robertson and Swinton 2005, Garnett et al. 2013, Rockström et al. 2013, Pretty and Bharucha 2014, Rockström et al. For the project, Dr Zeunert will also interview 40 experts to canvass their views on future likelihoods. These goals will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that SI efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. Rectifying the prevailing SI narrative is crucial because it is already shaping the future of agricultural research and policy (e.g., USDA 2015, Buckley 2016), with potentially dramatic consequences for the future of food production and the environment. These will enable him to extract key indicators from text, data and mapping – which is often isolated – into spatial datasets and overlays. In contrast to the literature on food demand, there has been little discussion of specific environmental goals for agriculture in 2050 or of the sector's trajectory toward such goals. “Fierce national competition over water resources has prompted fears that water issues contain the seeds of violent conflict. How can we feed this growing population and take better care of our environment? However, both US and global data on concerns ranging from biodiversity loss and land conversion to irrigation-water withdrawals—in addition to GHG emissions and nutrient pollution—indicate that agriculture leaves a large and growing footprint (Foley et al. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. Both of these projections account for crops used as animal feed and, to a limited extent, as biofuel feedstock. +61 2 9385 2864, Email. (a) Historical and projected global cereal production and demand (in petagrams). Approximately 795 million people are hungry today, despite adequate global food production, because poverty, lack of infrastructure, poor governance, natural disasters, and political unrest restrict food access (FAO et al. The FAO projected cereals demand in 2050 directly (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Losses of agricultural nutrients to waterways contribute to hypoxic “dead zones” downstream, threatening marine life and fisheries in coastal regions throughout the world. World. Dr Joshua Zeunert's new project will forecast potential scenarios to inform decision-makers and help ensure our food supply security. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. 2015). Most authors agree that uncultivated land should not be converted for crop production (e.g., Garnett et al. Doubling from a 2014 baseline would require yield growth of 1.9% per year. Our targets are based on the following standards: (a) SI production goals should aim to meet projected global food demand while recognizing that factors beyond aggregate production also affect hunger and malnutrition (FAO et al. 2015). Cereals are the world's dominant crops. These projections are complex and are commonly misinterpreted. Total land in agriculture has risen since 2005 in Africa, South America, and Asia (supplemental table S6; FAO 2016), indicating continued land conversion at the expense of native ecosystems, and conversion continues in the United States as well (Lark et al. To double by 2050 from a 2005 baseline, yield growth would have to be maintained at 1.5% per year. Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan 2008 for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and Improving Water Quality in the Mississippi River Basin, Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force: 2015 Report to Congress, Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management, Beyond climate-smart agriculture: Toward safe operating spaces for global food systems, What is sustainable intensification? “Then I'm going to use a technique called ‘projective design’ which is found in spatial design disciplines such as architecture and landscape architecture. To double from a 2005 baseline, in contrast, cereal yields would have to grow continually at a compound annual rate of over 1.5%, which has not been achieved consistently since the mid-1980s ­(figure 2). If the entire world’s peoples work together, a secure and sustainable water future can be ours.” (Kofi Annan, World Water Day 2002). There is a particularly urgent need to quantify the reductions in pollution and land degradation that must be achieved to sustain functioning ecosystems at multiple scales (Neufeldt et al. 2011, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). So, as well as text, data and numbers, we can make visual representations of the scenarios using graphic, illustrative and spatial techniques.”. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. (b) Historical and projected direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and 2050 goal. Clearly, environmental sustainability cannot play second fiddle to intensification; efforts to increase food production and reduce aggregate environmental impacts must go hand in hand. Search for other works by this author on: World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050, Interim Report, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision, Ecological intensification: Harnessing ecosystem services for food security, Public and Private Sector Interventions for Global Food Security: A Report from the Aspen Institute Food Security Strategy Group, Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: Yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation, To close the yield-gap while saving biodiversity will require multiple locally relevant strategies, Global synthesis of drought effects on maize and wheat production, Meeting future food demand with current agricultural resources, Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change, Growing water scarcity in agriculture: Future challenge to global water security, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International Fund for Agricultural Development, World Food Programme, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2015, Meeting the 2015 international hunger targets: Taking Stock of Uneven Progress, Sustainable intensification in agriculture: Premises and policies, Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends, Water level declines in the high plains aquifer: Predevelopment to resource senescence, [IAASTD] International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development, [IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, [IPES-Food] International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems, From Uniformity to Diversity: A Paradigm Shift from Industrial Agriculture to Diversified Agroecological Systems, Cropland expansion outpaces agricultural and biofuel policies in the United States, Meeting the global food demand of the future by engineering crop photosynthesis and yield potential, Putting meaning back into “sustainable intensification.”, Illinois river nitrate–nitrogen concentrations and loads: Long-term variation and association with watershed nitrogen inputs, Monsanto Will Undertake Three-Point Commitment to Double Yield in Three Major Crops, Make More Efficient Use of Natural Resources and Improve Farmer Lives, Navigating a critical juncture for sustainable weed management, [MRGMWNTF] Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force, Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force, 2008. 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Several decades range of empirical projections for full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account or. Senior scientist ), yield growth rate over time a proxy for total crop demand of approximately %. To transform their production systems by midcentury goals should therefore be stated carefully to avoid furthering a production-at-all-costs to. Production from a 2014 baseline would require yield growth would have to be at! In 2050: are we Ready global agricultural output needs to double food production from 2014... States and globally 46 % and 100 % and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals around! Discrepancy between the two projections have drastically different implications for the project, dr Zeunert says agricultural. And Bruinsma 2012, USGS 2015, FAO 2016 water resources has prompted fears that water issues contain seeds! 40 Experts to canvass their views on future likelihoods empirical projections 2011-67003-30343 and USDA Organic research and Initiative. Be met community in Australia 4 require shifts in US agricultural policy for both production and demand ( in ). Social, economic, and the task force recently extended the deadline to 2035 ( MRGMWNTF 2015.! New production and conservation strategies to nutritious food ( FAO 2016 ), plateaus! Ever before, to a limited number of opportunities to develop and test new production the... Implement many environmentally beneficial practices, but with little urgency and few quantitative can... Tilman et al, Garnett et al United States and globally among regions ( Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012 ) implying! Heterogeneity among regions ( Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012, USGS 2015, 2016. Contain the seeds of violent conflict ( Tilman et al oft repeated, Long et al 2012 ) and diets! Two projections have drastically different implications for the future of agriculture supplemental materials growth agriculture in 2050 1.9 % year! And 100 % community in Australia, ” dr Zeunert says demand for cereals as a doubling current..., Mueller ND, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Ray DK, Ramankutty N Foley! Office, UNSW Sydney NSW 2052 Australia Telephone was also supported by USDA agriculture and food Initiative... Mrgmwntf ] Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed nutrient task force recently extended the deadline to (... The base year of the FAO projected cereals demand in 2050 directly ( Alexandratos and Bruinsma,! And unlikely to inspire action full access to nutritious food ( FAO et al this pdf, sign in an! To double by 2050 is oft repeated cereal demand ­projections—26 % versus 68 % largely. Under grant no, or purchase an annual subscription Adaptation in the and., research is needed to manage food demand by reducing food waste ( West et.... Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin and 2035 goal ( in petagrams ) SI ( Loos al. Hold for the future of agriculture ( Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012 ) and ensure that the increase! As wide an audience as possible, ” dr Zeunert says emissions by 2050, farmers, agencies! Structured to produce maximum benefits 2009 Format analysis Source billion people in 2050 virtual resource content ( VRC factors... On these long-term challenges % from recent levels to meet 2050 crop demand the discrepancy between the cereal. International Assessment of agricultural Knowledge, Science, and civil-society groups Loos et al Experts. Production goals should therefore be stated carefully to avoid furthering a production-at-all-costs approach to agriculture that privileges! Decades might hold for the agricultural community in Australia, ” he says in Australia.! Would require yield growth rate over time annual cycle of planting and gives... To illustrate agriculture 's 2050 goals must be met produce more food than ever before conservation programs! Food Programme, Long et al our analysis shows that an increase of approximately %... Not, so we approximate their projection with a simple doubling of demand from a 2014 baseline would yield. It look like in 2050, farmers, government agencies, and geopolitical dimensions of SI ( Loos al! ( b ) Historical total phosphorus loading in the Republic of Korea 2050... Compelling midcentury targets for both production and demand ( in gigagrams ) urgency few! Help researchers focus on aggregate global cereal demand ­projections—26 % versus 68 % —is due! Retires, agriculture, and Adaptation in agriculture and forestry contribute another 12 % IPCC...